Statistical Report on the Decline of Monthly New Posts

[Matthias720]

Wait a month before continuing your analysis. After we have had a chance to stabilize, we can reexamine this topic, but for now, let's leave it be. I do appreciate your efforts though.

[Ashleg]

Also, if you look at the recent topics, there's a section on the first page that shows a post every minute. That's it, Ashleg out.

[The Skarzs]

Games shouldn't count, Ash.

[Ashleg]

If you're talking about the forum in general, games do count because they are activity on the forum.

If games are a reason people are logging in here, that's great.
It may be a Redwall forum but in the end it's a place for Redwall fans to gather. You don't need to be talking about Redwall the entire time for it to be considered activity.

[Jasper]

I'm guessing you are assuming it is a linear curve, more than likely, to make such a prediction. It is far more likely that it is a decaying exponential curve. This means it will likely level out at some point, and stop decaying. Like this:

Notice that the line eventually levels off and stops going down?



This is further helped by the fact that, although at some point yes we may lose members, in the worst case scenario we will hit a threshold where a dozen people like-minded to Ashleg are the only ones around. Obviously they aren't going anywhere, so the post and member count will remain the same for quite some time. I'll bet the forum has a lot more life than you may be considering.

[Wylder Treejumper]

-REMOVED BY REQUEST OF STAFF-

[Matthias720]

It's not for the data, Wylder, but for the mood of the community. If it was data I wanted you to wait for, we'd be revisiting this in a year, rather than a month.

[Skyblade]

Interesting data and analysis, @Wylder Treejumper I see the concern that this info could be rain on our parade, but it's still food for thought. I appreciate your sharing.

To be honest, I think it's fruitless to focus so much on stats. They're interesting; they're helpful. But maybe we're getting too wrapped up in details. When I step back to look at the bigger picture, I don't see a dying forum. Many are online every day, and posts are still springing in abundance. Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm actually shocked that activity is on a decline. To me it's seemed stable, maybe even increasing. Experience tells me that this forum's thriving, and take a look at our excited members - we can have enough faith in them to keep it that way.

NOTE: I hope this post isn't a problem; I want to state my opinion. Please correct me if needed.

[Wylder Treejumper]

@Matthias720: Ah, I misunderstood your use of "stabilization".


@Skyblade: The job of statisticians is to look at trends in data, even when they may be invisible on a day-to-day basis, such as this one. I don't deny the vitality of the forum, but question whether it has remained unchanged.


I apologize if I have hurt anyone's feelings or caused offense. My only intention was to help preserve the forum community, but is seems I have instead caused discord. That would be a result of the highly dominant T of my INTP personality



-----This thread is now closed-----

[James Gryphon]

It looks like I missed the fun.

All I'll say at this point is that the staff have done a statistical analysis of the forum before, and that I'm not worried about where we are at this minute.