TWG One Game Thread (starts on page 3)

[Jack the Quick]

Grumblegrumblegrumbleangrygrumble

[Cornflower MM]

It's worth noting I'm going to be extremely busy the remainder of this week and possibly next week, I don't know for sure yet.

I also agree with Jet.

[Ouroboros]

Strange. I've never played with a lynching on the first day before. There's basically no non-subjective evidence (granted, there rarely ever is, but the only things we have to go on today is our pre-existing thoughts on each other), so the chances of killing a mafia member is only 11% if we vote randomly. I say that we give them their kill tonight and try to start piecing things together based on that, rather than take an unnecessary risk and end up 5-2 by the second day.

[The Grey Coincidence]

How would we start piecing together things after the kill tho?

[Soneji]

Confirmation of role received.

Why are people already trying to lynch? There's no reason to start doing so without evidence, and if you start voting this early, it seems incredibly likely that we'll vote out an innocent.

Yeah, it's kinda hard to get any reasonable claim at the beginning of the game. I mean, sometimes you can tell based on how people act, but it's always... pointless and random.

You acknowledge that it's possible to get an accurate read even this early, then dismiss that as being pointless and random. The whole purpose of the game is to find who the scum are through analysis, of which behavioral analysis is always on the table. It's far from pointless, it's in fact our greatest tool and the best at it have a greater than random chance of finding scum with it.

I don't really know how you guys do voting so I will try it this way :

Vote : ShyYoshiGuy

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Confirmation of role received.

Why are people already trying to lynch? There's no reason to start doing so without evidence, and if you start voting this early, it seems incredibly likely that we'll vote out an innocent.

Yeah, it's kinda hard to get any reasonable claim at the beginning of the game. I mean, sometimes you can tell based on how people act, but it's always... pointless and random.

You acknowledge that it's possible to get an accurate read even this early, then dismiss that as being pointless and random. The whole purpose of the game is to find who the scum are through analysis, of which behavioral analysis is always on the table. It's far from pointless, it's in fact our greatest tool and the best at it have a greater than random chance of finding scum with it.

I don't really know how you guys do voting so I will try it this way :

Vote : ShyYoshiGuy

Don't quite get how that's wolfy (mafia-ey? whatever), but ok. I meant at the very beginning when no has died yet, it's pointless. Seeing who died and comparing it to the previous discussion is useful, but lynching random people at the beginning like this is the pointless part. It seems like you're making something out of nothing here, I vote Soneji.

[The Grey Coincidence]

Er- who should I vote for\?

[abbey account]

To say all was quiet in the Mossflower Wood was an understatement.  Never had such unsettling stillness settled over the region as it did now.  Even the flora seemed to be waiting, as if holding its breath for something inevitable.  Hidden in the undergrowth, a small patrol of Guosim shrews adopted the silence, watching nervously.  One of them opened her mouth, as if to speak, then thought better of it.

As if on request, a murmur of wind slowly cadenced to life, steadily rising into a strong, but not fierce, south wind.  Proud willow trees leaned with the might of the wind, guiding the shrews' eyes toward the north.  There, in the sky, a light shone fiercer than any star.  The stunned Guosim patrol could do nothing but stare as the light morphed into a beacon.  Then, just as suddenly as the wind arose, it stopped and all was once again quiet in the Mossflower Wood.

[Soneji]

Confirmation of role received.

Why are people already trying to lynch? There's no reason to start doing so without evidence, and if you start voting this early, it seems incredibly likely that we'll vote out an innocent.

Yeah, it's kinda hard to get any reasonable claim at the beginning of the game. I mean, sometimes you can tell based on how people act, but it's always... pointless and random.

You acknowledge that it's possible to get an accurate read even this early, then dismiss that as being pointless and random. The whole purpose of the game is to find who the scum are through analysis, of which behavioral analysis is always on the table. It's far from pointless, it's in fact our greatest tool and the best at it have a greater than random chance of finding scum with it.

I don't really know how you guys do voting so I will try it this way :

Vote : ShyYoshiGuy

Don't quite get how that's wolfy (mafia-ey? whatever), but ok. I meant at the very beginning when no has died yet, it's pointless. Seeing who died and comparing it to the previous discussion is useful, but lynching random people at the beginning like this is the pointless part. It seems like you're making something out of nothing here, I vote Soneji.

It's not making something out of nothing, considering those who promote d1 as useless are above rand to be mafia, but that's the whole thing with d1. By necessity you start off having to reach some, but that then generates further discussion which can be used to make even better reads later that day and gives content for future days. You here mention using the night kill in combination with the prior discussion is useful, but that only works if there is some meat to that discussion. Night kill analysis in general is unreliable, but even more so if everyone the prior day is just content to no lynch and see who dies. Then you just end up with the same situation as the prior day, with one less townie and only a slightly higher chance you hit mafia at total random.

[Ouroboros]

You here mention using the night kill in combination with the prior discussion is useful, but that only works if there is some meat to that discussion. Night kill analysis in general is unreliable, but even more so if everyone the prior day is just content to no lynch and see who dies. Then you just end up with the same situation as the prior day, with one less townie and only a slightly higher chance you hit mafia at total random.

Except, as I said, we only have an 11% of killing a mafia member today if we vote at random (which we have to do, since there is literally zero possible information. The best we can get out of a day one kill scenario is possibly narrowing down the list of possible mafia members to those who vote out a town member, which (due to the lack of evidence) is going to be completely arbitrary anyway. Is it really worth losing 28% of the town members on the first day just to have the slimmest of clues (that being "5 of the living 7 people voted out a townie therefore the mafia are likely to be in that group")?

[Soneji]

You here mention using the night kill in combination with the prior discussion is useful, but that only works if there is some meat to that discussion. Night kill analysis in general is unreliable, but even more so if everyone the prior day is just content to no lynch and see who dies. Then you just end up with the same situation as the prior day, with one less townie and only a slightly higher chance you hit mafia at total random.

Except, as I said, we only have an 11% of killing a mafia member today if we vote at random (which we have to do, since there is literally zero possible information. The best we can get out of a day one kill scenario is possibly narrowing down the list of possible mafia members to those who vote out a town member, which (due to the lack of evidence) is going to be completely arbitrary anyway. Is it really worth losing 28% of the town members on the first day just to have the slimmest of clues (that being "5 of the living 7 people voted out a townie therefore the mafia are likely to be in that group")?

Vote tracking is only one method by which to catch scum, and if by evidence you're talking about mechanics like a cop investigation you shouldn't be relying on that anyways. Mafia is not a game of facts, nor is it a game of numbers. Both are useful tools but are not the core of the game. It is always worth having more meaningful, alignment indicative discussion and you don't get much better than lynch pushes.

If we go by numbers anyway, no lynching now doesn't change much in the grand scheme  of things. You sacrifice the vote tracking/behavior reads you get from an extra lynch to instead get the greater WIFOM of another night kill, assuming town no lynches again in final four if they haven't lynched a mafia by then(this is assuming this game is normal ratio of 7v2 for nine players).

[The Grey Coincidence]

Mossflower sounds fun!

[Jack the Quick]

Strange. I've never played with a lynching on the first day before. There's basically no non-subjective evidence (granted, there rarely ever is, but the only things we have to go on today is our pre-existing thoughts on each other), so the chances of killing a mafia member is only 11% if we vote randomly. I say that we give them their kill tonight and try to start piecing things together based on that, rather than take an unnecessary risk and end up 5-2 by the second day.

I think I agree?
I have never been so confused.

[Tungro]

Strange. I've never played with a lynching on the first day before. There's basically no non-subjective evidence (granted, there rarely ever is, but the only things we have to go on today is our pre-existing thoughts on each other), so the chances of killing a mafia member is only 11% if we vote randomly. I say that we give them their kill tonight and try to start piecing things together based on that, rather than take an unnecessary risk and end up 5-2 by the second day.

I think I agree?
I have never been so confused.

Same

[Cornflower MM]

This is sure to be an interesting game, if nothing else.